1.公共选择的经济学：来自当地医药市场的证据
Juan Pablo Atal, José Ignacio Cuesta, Felipe González, and Cristóbal Otero #30779
摘要：我们利用公共药房分散进入智利当地市场，研究了国有企业竞争的影响。公立药店以私营药店三分之一的价格出售同样的药品，因为私营部门有更强的上游议价能力和市场力量但质量较差。公立药店诱发了私营部门的市场分割和价格上涨，这对转向公共选择的人有利，但对留下的人有害。公共药房在全国范围内的进入将使消费者每年的药品支出减少1.5%。
We study the effects of competition by state-owned firms, leveraging the decentralized entry of public pharmacies to local markets in Chile. Public pharmacies sell the same drugs at a third of private pharmacy prices, because of stronger upstream bargaining and market power in the private sector, but are of lower quality. Public pharmacies induced market segmentation and price increases in the private sector, which benefited the switchers to the public option but harmed the stayers. The countrywide entry of public pharmacies would reduce yearly consumer drug expenditure by 1.5 percent.
2. 种族一致性和医疗服务质量：来自军队的证据
Michael D. Frakes 和 Jonathan Gruber #30767
摘要：在美国，对初级保健利用不足的一个原因是病人和医疗服务提供者之间缺乏信任，特别是在种族方面。我们评估了患者和医疗提供者之间的种族一致性在推动使用预防保健方面的作用以及对患者健康的影响。我们使用来自军事卫生系统的数据，该数据可以确定医疗服务提供者的种族，而医疗服务提供者在不同军事基地的移动改变了患者对医疗服务提供者种族的接触率。我们考虑患有四种慢性致命但最终可以控制的疾病的病人，在这种情况下，与医疗服务提供者的关系可能对健康产生最直接和重要的影响。我们发现了惊人的证据，种族一致性导致了预防保健的改善，并最终降低了病人的死亡率。综合这些疾病，我们估计，在患有这些可控疾病的人中，黑人提供者的比例增加一个标准差，就会导致黑人死亡率相对下降15%。我们的结果进一步表明，这种死亡率的影响有55%到69%是通过改善药物使用和依从性产生的，而医疗服务提供者与患者关系的其他方面则占剩余部分。
One explanation for insufficient use of primary care in the U.S. is a lack of trust between patients and providers – particularly along racial lines. We assess the role of racial concordance between patients and medical providers in driving use of preventive care and the implications for patient outcomes. We use unique data from the Military Health System, where we observe providers as patients so that we can identify their race, and where moves across bases change exposure to provider race. We consider patients with four chronic, deadly, but ultimately manageable illnesses, where the relationship with the provider may have the most direct and important impact on health. We find striking evidence that racial concordance leads to improved maintenance of preventive care – and ultimately lower patient mortality. Pooling across these diseases, we estimate that a one-standard deviation increase in the share of providers who are Black leads to a 15% relative decline in Black m! ortality among those with these manageable illnesses. Our results further suggest that between 55 and 69% of this mortality impact arises through improved medication use and adherence, with other aspects of the provider-patient relationship accounting for the residual.
3.ACA医疗补助计划的扩大和产妇的发病率
Pinka Chatterji, Hanna Glenn, Sara Markowitz, and Jennifer Karas Montez #30770
摘要：在本文中，我们检验了《平价医疗法案》的医疗补助扩展是否与院内孕产妇发病率有关。ACA医疗补助计划的扩大可能通过增加孕前的医疗服务以及提高医院的财务状况，改善分娩护理质量，进而影响孕产妇的发病率。我们在事件研究的同时使用差分模型。数据来自于个人层面的出生证明和州级医院的出院数据。结果显示，几乎没有证据表明，ACA医疗补助计划的扩大与整体产妇发病率或特定不良事件有关，包括子痫、子宫破裂和非计划性子宫切除术。这些结果与之前的研究一致，显示ACA医疗补助计划的扩大与怀孕前的健康或怀孕期间的产妇健康没有统计学上的关联。我们的结果补充了这个故事，并发现几乎没有证据表明产妇的健康得到了改善。
In this paper, we test whether the Affordable Care Act Medicaid expansions are associated with in-hospital maternal morbidity. The ACA expansions may have affected maternal morbidity by increasing pre-conception access to health care, and by improving the quality of delivery care through enhancing hospitals’ financial positions. We use difference-in-difference models in conjunction with event studies. Data come from individual-level birth certificates and state-level hospital discharge data. The results show little evidence that the expansions are associated with overall maternal morbidity or indicators of specific adverse events including eclampsia, ruptured uterus, and unplanned hysterectomy. The results are consistent with prior research showing that the ACA Medicaid expansions are not statistically associated with pre-pregnancy health or maternal health during pregnancy. Our results add to this story and find little evidence of improvements in maternal health upon deli! very.
4.谁站在了中国（科学）巨人的肩膀上？来自化学的证据
Shumin Qiu, Claudia Steinwender, and Pierre Azoulay #30772
摘要：近几十年来，中国的研究人员已经成为科学事业的杰出贡献者，这一点从中国研究机构的出版物数量中可以看出。中国在科学领域的崛起有可能推动全球前沿的发展，但仅仅是生产知识并不能保证其他人能够在此基础上发展。在这篇论文中，我们研究了中国研究的肥沃程度，这可以通过引用来衡量。利用精英化学研究人员的发表和引用数据，我们表明，与其他国家的文章相比，中国人撰写的文章从美国得到的引用只有一半。我们表明，即使在仔细控制了中国研究的 “质量”之后，中国首席科学家的文章从美国研究人员那里得到的引用也少了28%。我们的结果意味着，相对于其他外国科学家的工作，美国研究人员并不那么容易建立在中国研究人员的工作之上，即使是在中国科学家长期以来表现出色的情况下。
In recent decades, Chinese researchers have become preeminent contributors to the scientific enterprise, as reflected by the number of publications originating from Chinese research institutions. China’s rise in science has the potential to push forward the global frontier, but mere production of knowledge does not guarantee that others are able to build on it. In this manuscript, we study how fertile Chinese research is, as measured by citations. Using publication and citation data for elite Chemistry researchers, we show that Chinese authored articles receive only half the citations from the US compared to articles from other countries. We show that even after carefully controlling for the “quality” of Chinese research, Chinese PIs’ articles receive 28% fewer citations from US researchers. Our results imply that US researchers do not build as readily on the work of Chinese researchers, relative to the work of other foreign scientists, even in a setting where Chinese scient! ists have long excelled.
5.美国学校财政：资源与成果
Danielle V. Handel and Eric A. Hanushek #30769
摘要：学校资源对学生成绩的影响最早是在20世纪60年代提出的，此后一直存在争议。这个问题进入了立法机构和法院对学校经费的决策。历史上的研究发现，支出和成绩之间几乎没有一致或系统的关系，但这种研究经常受到对基本估计策略的重大关注。最近的研究通过更有说服力的分析，重新探讨了资源与成绩的基本关系，对资源的影响进行了更有力的鉴定。然而，对现有研究的彻底审查导致了与历史工作类似的结论：资源如何被使用是教育结果的关键。同时，研究没有成功地确定成功使用资源的机制，也没有成功地确定何时增加的学校投资可能得到良好的利用。对替代性政策（资本支出、减少班级规模或教师工资激励）的直接调查并没有为这些具体的政策举措提供明确的支持。
The impact of school resources on student outcomes was first raised in the 1960s and has been controversial since then. This issue enters into the decision making on school finance in both legislatures and the courts. The historical research found little consistent or systematic relationship of spending and achievement, but this research frequently suffers from significant concerns about the underlying estimation strategies. More recent work has re-opened the fundamental resource-achievement relationship with more compelling analyses that offer stronger identification of resource impacts. A thorough review of existing studies, however, leads to similar conclusions as the historical work: how resources are used is key to the outcomes. At the same time, the research has not been successful at identifying mechanisms underlying successful use of resources or for ascertaining when added school investments are likely to be well-used. Direct investigations of alternative inp! ut policies (capital spending, reducing class size, or salary incentives for teachers) do not provide clear support for such specific policy initiatives.
6.幸福指数排名
David G. Blanchflower and Alex Bryson #30759
摘要：结合来自盖洛普世界民意调查和美国每日跟踪调查的约400万受访者的数据，我们对164个国家、美国的50个州和哥伦比亚特区的8个福祉指标进行了排名。这些是四个积极的情感衡量标准–生活满意度、享受、微笑和休息良好，以及四个消极的情感变量–痛苦、悲伤、愤怒和担忧。汇总2008-2017年的数据，我们发现国家和州的排名明显不同，这取决于它们是使用积极或消极的影响措施进行排名。美国在消极影响方面的排名低于积极影响，也就是说，使用消极影响的国家福祉排名比使用积极影响的国家福祉排名要差。将所有八种衡量标准的排名合并为215个地理位置的汇总排名指数，我们发现排名前10的9个州和排名前20的16个州是美国的。只有一个美国州的排名在前100名之外–西弗吉尼亚州（101）! . 伊拉克排名最低。国家一级的幸福指数汇总排名与世界幸福指数报告中的排名有很大的不同，与人类发展指数获得的排名更具有可比性。
Combining data on around four million respondents from the Gallup World Poll and the US Daily Tracker Poll we rank 164 countries, the 50 states of the United States and the District of Colombia on eight wellbeing measures. These are four positive affect measures – life satisfaction, enjoyment, smiling and being well-rested – and four negative affect variables – pain, sadness, anger and worry. Pooling the data for 2008-2017 we find country and state rankings differ markedly depending on whether they are ranked using positive or negative affect measures. The United States ranks lower on negative than positive affect, that is, its country wellbeing ranking looks worse using negative affect than it does when using positive affect. Combining rankings on all eight measures into a summary ranking index for 215 geographical locations we find that nine of the top ten and 16 of the top 20 ranked are US states. Only one US state ranks outside the top 100 – West Virginia (101)! . Iraq ranks lowest – just below South Sudan. Country-level rankings on the summary wellbeing index differ sharply from those reported in the World Happiness Index and are more comparable to those obtained with the Human Development Index.
7.预期的性别歧视和成绩披露
Louis-Pierre Lepage, Xiaomeng Li, and Basit Zafar #30765
摘要：我们研究了美国一所大型公立大学的独特评分政策，该政策允许学生在观察其原始成绩后，将其字母成绩掩盖为 “合格”。利用行政成绩单记录，我们发现女学生比男学生更不会掩盖他们的成绩，即使在考虑了成绩、GPA和课程/专业的差异之后。我们提出了一个框架，表明劳动力市场上的预期歧视如何扭曲了不同性别的掩饰动机。与该框架相一致的是，一项调查显示，学生预期女生，特别是科技、数学、商业和经济学专业的学生，将面临劳动力市场的歧视，这使得她们不太可能掩饰。我们的调查使我们能够区分预期的歧视和其他可能导致掩饰差距的解释，如对风险或透明度的偏好。我们发现，预期歧视可以解释在掩饰方面的性别差距的相当大的一部分。
We study a unique grading policy at a large US public university allowing students to mask their letter grades into a “Pass”, after having observed their original grade. Using administrative transcript records, we find that female students are substantially less likely to mask their grades than male students, even after accounting for differences in grades, GPA, and course/major taking. We present a framework showing how anticipated discrimination in the labor market can distort incentives to mask across gender. Consistent with the framework, a survey reveals that students anticipate that female students, particularly in STEM, Business, and Economics, will face labor market discrimination which makes them less likely to mask. Our survey allows us to distinguish between anticipated discrimination and other explanations which could contribute to the masking gap, such as preferences for risk or transparency. We find that anticipated discrimination can explain a sizable frac! tion of the gender gap in masking.
8.中央银行塑造金融市场情绪时的货币政策
Anil K Kashyap and Jeremy C. Stein #30751
摘要：最近的研究发现，货币政策在一定程度上是通过影响金融市场证券交易、中介贷款的风险溢价来发挥作用的。研究还表明，当风险溢价被压缩时，发生逆转的可能性就会增加，从而损害信贷供应机制和实体经济。这些影响共同为货币政策创造了一个跨时空的权衡，因为今天刺激经济可能为未来的衰退播下种子，而这可能难以抵消。我们介绍了这种权衡的一个简单模型，并阐述了其对货币政策实施的影响。
Recent research has found that monetary policy works in part by influencing the risk premiums on both traded financial-market securities and intermediated loans. Research has also shown that when risk premiums are compressed, there is an increased likelihood of a reversal that damages the credit-supply mechanism and the real economy. Together these effects create an intertemporal tradeoff for monetary policy, as stimulating the economy today can sow the seeds of a future downturn that might be difficult to offset. We introduce a simple model of this tradeoff and draw out its implications for the conduct of monetary policy.
9.公共信息作为股东间分歧的来源
Laurent Bouton, Aniol Llorente-Saguer, Antonin Macé, Adam Meirowitz, Shaoting Pi, and Dimitrios Xefteris #30757
摘要：我们研究关于公司价值的信念是如何对来自公告或股东会议的公共信息做出反应的。我们专注于具有同质性股东（即具有共同偏好和意见的代理人）的环境，其中信息是关于哪种行动方案对公司来说是最好的。该分析表明，现有的否定同质股东模型的工作是过度的。与公认的观点相反，这些模型可以解释公共事件发生后交易量的增加（这种模式在几篇实证论文中都有记载）。两个经济方面的见解浮出水面。首先，当同质化的股东预期公司的决策以信息为导向时，对公司基本面和最佳行动方案信念的差异不需要导致对公司价值的信念差异。其次，当投票不完全是信息的时候，同质化的股东将寻求从投票后的交易中获得信息租金！这两种激励效应都倾向于在投票后产生信息租金。这两种激励效应都会在公开事件后产生交易量的增加。
We study how beliefs about firm value respond to public information stemming from either public announcements or shareholder meetings. We focus on settings with homogeneous shareholders (i.e., agents with common preferences and opinions), where information is about which course of action is best for the firm. The analysis illustrates that extant work dismissing homogeneous shareholders models has over-reached. Counter to the received wisdom, these models can explain increases in trading volume after public events (a pattern which is documented by several empirical papers). Two economic insights surface. First, when homogeneous shareholders anticipate that firm decisions will be guided by information, the presence of differences in belief about the firm’s fundamentals and best course of action need not lead to differences in belief about firm value. Second, when voting is not fully informative, homogeneous shareholders will seek to generate informational rents from trading ! after the vote. Both of these incentive effects will tend to generate increases in trading volume after public events.
10.企业社会责任
Harrison Hong and Edward P. Shore #30771
摘要：股东对企业社会责任的兴趣是由金钱动机（异常回报率）还是非金钱动机（愿意牺牲回报来解决各种公司的外部因素）所驱动？为了回答这个问题，我们将文献分为七个测试：（1）资本成本，（2）投资组合的表现，（3）机构类型的所有权，（4）调查和实验，（5）管理动机，（6）股东提案，以及（7）公司被纳入责任指数。这些测试和最新的提案数据主要表明，股东是由非金钱动机驱动的。为了激发对全球变暖的福利影响的进一步研究，我们评估了对股东愿意牺牲的回报（或，’greeniums’）的估计，以及对成为可持续发展的公司的资产质押的增加，是否与去碳化部门的总投资增长一致。
Is shareholder interest in corporate social responsibility driven by pecuniary motives (abnormal rates of return) or non-pecuniary ones (willingness to sacrifice returns to address various firm externalities)? To answer this question, we categorize the literature into seven tests: (1) costs of capital, (2) performance of portfolios, (3) ownership by types of institutions, (4) surveys and experiments, (5) managerial motives, (6) shareholder proposals, and (7) firm inclusion in responsibility indices. These tests and the most recent proposals data predominantly indicate that shareholders are driven by non-pecuniary motives. To stimulate further research on welfare implications for global warming, we assess whether estimates of the returns shareholders are willing to sacrifice (or, ‘greeniums’), along with the increasing amounts of assets pledged to firms that become sustainable, are consistent with the growth of aggregate investments in the decarbonization sector.
11.邻里关系对儿童影响的规模和性质。来自丹麦社会住房实验的证据
Stephen B. Billings, Mark Hoekstra, and Gabriel Pons Rotger #30764
摘要：最近的研究表明，居住地对儿童的长期成长有因果影响。然而，人们对哪些社区特征是最重要的，以及社区效应在多大程度上发挥作用知之甚少。通过使用公共住房的随机分配和丹麦的行政数据，我们通过使用各种特征和尺度来定义社区，从而进入社区效应的 “黑箱”。结果表明，邻里关系对儿童心理健康的影响，特别是对教育的影响是巨大的，但却是局部的，而对毒品持有的影响则是在更广泛的范围内运作。此外，失业和教育是比邻里收入更好的预测结果。
Recent research documents a causal impact of place on the long-run outcomes of children. However, little is known about which neighborhood characteristics are most important, and at what scale neighborhood effects operate. By using the random assignment of public housing along with administrative data from Denmark, we get inside the “black box” of neighborhood effects by defining neighborhoods using various characteristics and scales. Results indicate effects on mental health and especially education are large but local, while effects on drug possession operate on a much broader scale. Additionally, unemployment and education are better predictors of outcomes than neighborhood income.
12.最优渐进主义
Nils Haakon Lehr and Pascual Restrepo #30755
摘要：本文研究了渐进主义如何影响贸易、技术和改革的福利收益。当人们面临调整摩擦时，渐进式冲击在短期内造成的不利分配影响较小。我们表明，通过对贸易和技术征收临时税来诱导更多的渐进式过渡会带来福利收益，并提供了税收的最佳路径的模型。我们的模型考虑了重新分配努力对政策作出反应的可能性，以及收入税和援助项目的存在。利用这些模型，我们计算出最佳的临时税收，以减轻来自中国的进口竞争上升和自动化技术的部署取代常规工作的分配后果。我们的模型也可以用来计算经济改革或贸易自由化的最佳时机，我们应用这些模型来研究哥伦比亚1990年的贸易自由化–这是一个突出的例子，最佳政策要求！更多的渐进式改革。
This paper studies how gradualism affects the welfare gains from trade, technology, and reforms. When people face adjustment frictions, gradual shocks create less adverse distributional effects in the short run. We show that there are welfare gains from inducing a more gradual transition via temporary taxes on trade and technology, and provide formulas for the optimal path for taxes. Our formulas account for the possibility that reallocation effort responds to policy, and for the existence of income taxes and assistance programs. Using these formulas, we compute the optimal temporary taxes needed to mitigate the distributional consequences of rising import competition from China and the deployment of automation technologies substituting for routine jobs. Our formulas can also be used to compute the optimal timing of economic reforms or trade liberalizations, and we apply them to study Colombia’s trade liberalization in 1990—a prominent example where optimal policy called! for a more gradual reform.
13.持久的伤痕：成年早期的抑郁症对随后的劳动力市场结果的影响
Buyi Wang, Richard G. Frank, and Sherry A. Glied #30776
摘要：越来越多的证据表明，生命早期的健康状况不佳会给成年人的健康和经济发展留下持久的伤痕。虽然这些文献大多集中在童年经历上，但产生这些持久影响的机制–疾病的复发和人力资本积累的中断–并不限于童年。在这项研究中，我们研究了在成年早期经历的抑郁症发作是如何影响随后的劳动力市场结果的。我们发现，在50岁时，在27-35岁接受调查时已达到抑郁症诊断标准的人，每小时工资降低10%（以职业为条件），每年工作时间减少120-180小时，总共产生的年工资收入降低24%。这种收入损失的一部分（21-39%）是由于抑郁症通常是一种慢性病，在生命的后期复发。但是，很大一部分（25-55%）是由于成年早期的抑郁症破坏了人力资本的积累，因为它减少了工作经验，并影响了对技能分布的选择，从而降低了工资增长的潜力。早期抑郁症的这些挥之不去的影响加强了早期和多方面干预的重要性，以解决抑郁症及其在工作场所的后续影响。
A growing body of evidence indicates that poor health early in life can leave lasting scars on adult health and economic outcomes. While much of this literature focuses on childhood experiences, mechanisms generating these lasting effects – recurrence of illness and interruption of human capital accumulation – are not limited to childhood. In this study, we examine how an episode of depression experienced in early adulthood affects subsequent labor market outcomes. We find that, at age 50, people who had met diagnostic criteria for depression when surveyed at ages 27-35 earn 10% lower hourly wages (conditional on occupation) and work 120-180 fewer hours annually, together generating 24% lower annual wage incomes. A portion of this income penalty (21-39%) occurs because depression is often a chronic condition, recurring later in life. But a substantial share (25-55%) occurs because depression in early adulthood disrupts human capital accumulation, by reducing work exper! ience and by influencing selection into occupations with skill distributions that offer lower potential for wage growth. These lingering effects of early depression reinforce the importance of early and multifaceted intervention to address depression and its follow-on effects in the workplace.
14.剖析权力的脉络：国际贸易和英国财政-军事国家的崛起，1689-1823年
Ernesto Dal Bó, Karolina Hutková, Lukas Leucht, and Noam Yuchtman #30754
摘要：我们评估了贸易税在帝国主义英国财政-军事国家发展中的作用。有影响力的工作，如Brewer（1989年）的 “权力之弦”，将财政能力的提高归因于对国内而非贸易商品的征税：与国内商品粗略相关的消费税收入比关税收入增长更快。我们构建了新的历史收入序列，将贸易商品和国内商品的消费税收入进行了分类。我们发现贸易商品的税收有很大的增长，在1800年左右占了间接税收的一半以上。这挑战了将英国国家的发展归因于国内因素的传统智慧：国际因素也很重要。
We evaluate the role of taxes on trade in the development of imperial Britain’s fiscal-military state. Influential work, e.g., Brewer’s (1989) “Sinews of Power,” attributed increased fiscal capacity to the taxation of domestic, rather than traded, goods: excise revenues, coarsely associated with domestic goods, grew faster than customs revenues. We construct new historical revenue series disaggregating excise revenues from traded and domestic goods. We find substantial growth in taxes on traded goods, accounting for over half of indirect taxation around 1800. This challenges the conventional wisdom attributing the development of the British state to domestic factors: international factors mattered, too.
15.锦标赛式的政治竞争和地方保护主义。来自中国的理论和证据
Hanming Fang, Ming Li, and Zenan Wu #30780
摘要：我们认为，在一个区域分权的专制体制下，辖区内的竞争扭曲了地方政治家在自己城市和竞争城市的企业之间进行资源分配的动机。我们建立了一个项目选择的锦标赛模型，以捕捉地方保护主义的驱动力量。该模型有力地预测了区域溢出效应和政治竞争激励的共同存在导致了对竞争区域的资源分配的偏颇。结合几个独特的数据集，我们在中国各城市的政府采购分配和企业股权投资的背景下测试了我们的模型预测。我们发现，首先，当地方政治家处于更密集的政治竞争中时，他们分配给竞争城市的企业的政府采购合同较少；其次，地方企业，特别是地方国有企业，将地方政治家的职业关切内部化，并减少对竞争城市的投资。我们的论文为在一个由锦标赛式政治竞争激励的专制国家中的低效率地方保护主义提供了政治经济学解释。
We argue that inter-jurisdictional competition in a regionally decentralized authoritarian regime distorts local politicians’ incentives in resource allocation among firms from their own city and a competing city. We develop a tournament model of project selection that captures the driving forces of local protectionism. The model robustly predicts that the joint presence of regional spillover and the incentive for political competition leads to biased resource allocations against the competing regions. Combining several unique data sets, we test our model predictions in the context of government procurement allocation and firms’ equity investment across Chinese cities. We find that, first, when local politicians are in more intensive political competition, they allocate less government procurement contracts to firms in the competing city; second, local firms, especially local SOEs, internalize the local politicians’ career concerns and invest less in the competing citie! s. Our paper provides a political economy explanation for inefficient local protectionism in an autocracy incentivized by tournament-style political competition.
16.劳动力市场中的西班牙裔美国人：长期和跨代的模式
Francisca M. Antman, Brian Duncan, and Stephen J. Trejo #30750
摘要：这篇文章回顾了美国拉美裔人在劳动力市场上的表现，特别关注这一人群中在美国出生的部分。在讨论了通常用于研究西班牙裔的美国数据来源中出现的关键问题后，我们记录了西班牙裔目前在教育、收入和劳动力供应方面与其他美国人的比较，然后我们讨论了这些结果的长期趋势。相对于非西班牙裔白人，在美国出生的大多数西班牙裔人在收入方面有很大的缺陷，这在很大程度上反映了相应的教育缺陷。随着时间的推移，在美国出生的西班牙裔人的高中毕业率几乎与非西班牙裔白人的高中毕业率趋于一致，但西班牙裔人在完成大学学业方面的巨大差距反而扩大了。最后，从几代移民的角度来看，西班牙裔在第一代移民和由美国出生的移民子女组成的第二代移民之间，在教育和收入方面有很大的改善。第二代以后的持续进步被衡量问题所掩盖，因为西班牙裔通婚率很高，而且西班牙裔移民的后裔在来自混合族裔的家庭时往往不自我认同为西班牙裔。
This article reviews evidence on the labor market performance of Hispanics in the United States, with a particular focus on the US-born segment of this population. After discussing critical issues that arise in the US data sources commonly used to study Hispanics, we document how Hispanics currently compare with other Americans in terms of education, earnings, and labor supply, and then we discuss long-term trends in these outcomes. Relative to non-Hispanic Whites, US-born Hispanics from most national origin groups possess sizeable deficits in earnings, which in large part reflect corresponding educational deficits. Over time, rates of high school completion by US-born Hispanics have almost converged to those of non-Hispanic Whites, but the large Hispanic deficits in college completion have instead widened. Finally, from the perspective of immigrant generations, Hispanics experience substantial improvements in education and earnings between first-generation immigrants an! d the second-generation consisting of the US-born children of immigrants. Continued progress beyond the second generation is obscured by measurement issues arising from high rates of Hispanic intermarriage and the fact that later-generation descendants of Hispanic immigrants often do not self-identify as Hispanic when they come from families with mixed ethnic origins.
17.驱逐和精神病治疗
Ashley Bradford and Johanna Catherine Maclean #30766
摘要：稳定的住房对健康、就业、教育和其他社会成果至关重要。驱逐反映了一种住房不稳定的形式，每年有数百万美国人经历这种情况。没有得到充分治疗的精神障碍有可能在几个方面影响驱逐。例如，这些障碍可能会阻碍劳动力市场的表现，从而影响支付租金的能力，或者增加风险和/或滋扰行为的可能性，从而导致违反租约。我们估计当地获得精神病治疗对驱逐率的影响。我们将一个县内提供门诊和住院治疗的精神病治疗中心的数量与驱逐率的数据结合在一个双向固定效应框架中。我们的研究结果表明，在一个县增加10个精神病治疗中心会使驱逐率降低2.1%。
Stable housing is critical for health, employment, education, and other social outcomes. Evictions reflect a form of housing instability that is experienced by millions of Americans each year. Inadequately treated psychiatric disorders have the potential to influence evictions in several ways. For example, these disorders may impede labor market performance and thus the ability to pay rent, or increase the likelihood of risky and/or nuisance behaviors that can lead to a lease violation. We estimate the effect of local access to psychiatric treatment on eviction rates. We combine data on the number of psychiatric treatment centers that offer outpatient and residential care within a county with eviction rates in a two-way fixed-effects framework. Our findings imply that ten additional psychiatric treatment centers in a county lead to a reduction of 2.1% in the eviction rate.
18.利用流动性数据量化的15分钟城市
Timur Abbiasov, Cate Heine, Edward L. Glaeser, Carlo Ratti, Sadegh Sabouri, Arianna Salazar Miranda, and Paolo Santi #30752
摘要：美国人为了购物和娱乐活动平均要走7到9英里，这比以生态为导向的城市规划师所倡导的15分钟（步行）的城市要长得多。本文利用4000万台移动设备的个人旅行的GPS数据，对美国城市的本地旅行行为进行了全面分析。我们将本地使用定义为离家15分钟步行距离内的出行份额，并发现美国城市居民中位数只有12%的日常出行是在这么短的距离内进行的。我们发现，获得当地服务的差异可以解释大都市地区之间15分钟使用量的80%的变化，以及大都市地区内部使用量的74%的变化。纽约市内历史上分区允许性的差异表明，当地服务获取和通勤时间之间存在因果关系，限制性较小的分区规则，如允许更多的混合用途开发，将导致更短的旅行时间。最后! 我们记录了当地的通勤时间情况和较贫穷的城市居民的隔离之间的强烈关联，但与较富有的城市居民无关联，这表明15分钟的城市也可能加剧边缘化社区的社会隔离。
Americans travel 7 to 9 miles on average for shopping and recreational activities, which is far longer than the 15-minute (walking) city advocated by ecologically-oriented urban planners. This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of local trip behavior in US cities using GPS data on individual trips from 40 million mobile devices. We define local usage as the share of trips made within 15-minutes walking distance from home, and find that the median US city resident makes only 12% of their daily trips within such a short distance. We find that differences in access to local services can explain eighty percent of the variation in 15-minute usage across metropolitan areas and 74 percent of the variation in usage within metropolitan areas. Differences in historic zoning permissiveness within New York suggest a causal link between access and usage, and that less restrictive zoning rules, such as permitting more mixed-use development, would lead to shorter travel times. Finally! , we document a strong correlation between local usage and experienced segregation for poorer, but not richer, urbanites, which suggests that 15-minute cities may also exacerbate the social isolation of marginalized communities.
19.用机器学习完善公共政策：税务审计的案例
Marco Battaglini, Luigi Guiso, Chiara Lacava, Douglas L. Miller, and Eleonora Patacchini #30777
摘要：我们研究在多大程度上可以利用行政数据来提高税务审计的效率，而不需要随机审计。利用意大利关于独资企业纳税申报、审计及其结果的人口数据，我们开发了一种新的方法来解决所谓的选择性标签问题–即ML算法必须在内生选择的数据上进行训练。我们记录了通过用ML改进对纳税人的审计选择来提高审计收入的巨大空间。用我们训练过的算法所选择的同等数量的纳税人来代替10%产量最低的审计，可以将检测到的逃税行为提高38%，而实际偿还的逃税行为则提高29%。
We study the extent to which ML techniques can be used to improve tax auditing efficiency using administrative data, without the need of randomized audits. Using Italy’s population data on sole proprietorship tax returns, audits and their outcome, we develop a new approach to address the so called selective labels problem – the fact that a ML algorithm must necessarily be trained on endogenously selected data. We document the existence of substantial margins for raising revenue from audits by improving the selection of taxpayers to audit with ML. Replacing the 10% least productive audits with an equal number of taxpayers selected by our trained algorithm raises detected tax evasion by as much as 38%, and evasion that is actually payed back by 29%.
20.非基本面的流动和外汇兑换率
Felipe E. Aldunate, Zhi Da, Borja Larrain, and Clemens Sialm #30753
摘要：由于对国际证券的高度配置，智利养老金计划中频繁但不知情的资金流动在货币市场上产生了大量交易。这些非基本面的流动对智利比索产生了重大影响，据估计，智利比索的价格弹性相对较低，为0.81。银行部门的对冲活动将价格压力传播到货币远期市场，并导致违反覆盖利率平价。利用交易数据和银行资产负债表数据，我们确认监管要求和银行的风险承担限制造成了套利的限制。
Frequent, yet uninformed, fund flows in Chilean pension plans generate substantial trading in currency markets due to the high allocation to international securities. These non-fundamental flows have a significant impact on the Chilean peso, which is estimated to have a relatively low price elasticity of 0.81. Hedging by the banking sector propagates the price pressure to currency forward markets and results in violations of the covered interest rate parity. Using trading data and bank balance sheet data, we confirm that regulatory requirements and banks’ risk bearing constraints create limits of arbitrage.
21.绩效工资是否增强了社会责任感？印度尼西亚偏远学校的证据
Arya Gaduh, Menno Pradhan, Jan Priebe, and Dewi Susanti #30758
摘要：本文研究了赋予社区对教师绩效工资的权力是否能提高印度尼西亚偏远学校社会责任的有效性。我们测试了基于摄像头验证的教师在岗情况或社区对教师表现的评分的激励合同。当社会问责制与前者结合时，对学生的学习产生了最强烈和最持久的影响。结果表明，当校长（社区）相对于代理人（普通教师）的权力较弱时，使用不完整但可核查的合同来增加这种权力比使用更全面但主观的合同效果更好。
Social accountability offers a viable alternative to top-down supervision of service delivery in remote areas when travel cost renders the latter ineffective. However, this bottom-up approach may not be effective when the community has weak authority relative to the service provider. This paper investigates whether giving communities authority over teacher performance pay improves the effectiveness of social accountability in Indonesia’s remote schools. We tested incentive contracts based on either camera-verified teacher presence or community ratings of teacher performance. Social accountability had the strongest and most persistent impact on student learning when combined with the former. The results indicate that when the principal (community) has weak authority vis-à-vis the agent (regular teachers), increasing that authority using an incomplete but verifiable contract works better than using a more comprehensive but subjective one.